The U.S. men’s national soccer team is a huge underdog Tuesday night as it looks to advance past Argentina in the semifinals of Copa America Centenario. The Americans are hosting the tournament and tonight’s game is at NRG Stadium in Houston, but home-field advantage isn’t swaying the betting market.


There are numerous ways to bet a soccer game. Here are odds on four of them for Tuesday’s USA-Argentina Copa America semifinal, posted at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The odds as of Tuesday morning are displayed first, the opening odds are in parentheses, and if you look at the trends, you’ll surmise all the action has been on the favored South Americans.

USA vs. Argentina odds

To advance (includes penalty kick shootout)
Argentina -550 (- 500)
USA +425 (+400)

Three-way money line (results official after 90 minutes plus injury time)
Argentina -250 (- 215)
USA +850 (+675)
Draw +350 (+335)

Goal line
Argentina -1 goal -150 (-125)
USA +1 goal +130 (+105)

Over 2.5 goals -120
Under 2.5 goals +100

After losing to Colombia 2-0 in the first game of the tournament, the U.S. has rolled to three straight wins (4-0 vs. Costa Rica, 1-0 vs. Paraguay, 2-1 vs. Ecuador). These are not bad teams, but Argentina is a completely different animal. Lionel Messi, perhaps the best player on the planet, is just the start of a La Albiceleste roster loaded with world-class players.

The USA , meanwhile, really has no players one would consider “world-class.” Making things even more difficult tonight, the Stars and Stripes will be without three regular starters because of suspensions – forward Bobby Wood and midfielders Jermaine Jones and Alejandro Bedoya. Jones, along with Michael Bradley, anchors the middle of the field for the Americans and has had an excellent tournament. His absence looms the largest.

USA vs. Argentina picks

We do our best to offer sharp betting analysis on this site, but tonight is all about homerism for us. We’ll go very small with three bets just for karma’s sake and with really no expectation to win: USA +850 on the three-way money line, draw +350, and USA to advance at +425.

The ‘to advance’ line is particularly intriguing.  Should this game end in a draw after 90 minutes, it will go straight to penalty kicks – there will not be 30 minutes of extra time, as is customary in soccer tournaments, until the Copa finals. That means if the USA somehow gets a 0-0 or 1-1 result, they won’t have to worry about holding off Argentina for another half-hour. If it get to PKs, anything can happen and the game becomes a virtual coin flip. By the way, U.S. goalkeeper Brad Guzan once saved four penalty kicks in a game for Aston Villa, his club team in England.