Super Bowl Sunday, the greatest of all holidays, is here. This year’s version of the game, the 51st, features the high-flying offense of the Atlanta Falcons against the Super Bowl veteran New England Patriots, who are making their seventh NFL championship appearance in the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era.
New England is a 3-point favorite at every sports book in the world. That’s where the number opened, and sources in Las Vegas do not believe that will change before kickoff (6:30 p.m. ET, Fox).
As of about 9 a.m. ET on game day, the total sits at a ridiculously high 58.5, as some late-week ‘under’ money moved the number down from 59. If the total stays above 57, it will be the highest in Super Bowl history. ‘Under’ 57 cashed when the Saints beat the Colts 31-17 in Super Bowl 44 in Miami.
There are also approximately a million props to choose from. You can scroll through those in the document below.
There are two simple trends to consider as you contemplate your wagers on Sunday’s contest in Houston:
–The Patriots are a crazy-good 14-3 against the spread. One of their ATS losses came during Brady’s four-game suspension.
–The Falcons over/under record is 15-2-1.
So, this should be easy, right? Just play the Pats -3 and ‘over’ 58.5 and watch your winnings roll in.
Well, no, not quite.
Bettors need to remember that the bookmakers, the guys making the lines, are aware of these trends, and more importantly, they’re anticipating you betting this way – and they’ve adjusted their numbers accordingly.
It’s hard to find value on the point spread here. Since it opened New England -3 and hasn’t moved since, that’s an indication the game is appropriately priced.
In terms of the total, your choices are these: bet ‘over’ on what many are expecting to be the highest scoring Super Bowl of all time, or bet the ‘under’ on principle – that principle being no NFL total should come close to 60.
Our expert handicappers are here to help. Jump over to our sister site, Vegas Sports Experts, for their Super Bowl picks. We’ll be posting picks on the side, total and props throughout the day.
By the way, our picks packages all come with a money-back guarantee. If we’re not picking winners, get your money back no questions asked.
Here are your Super Bowl 51 props.