Euro 2016 resumes Thursday after a two-day break , as Poland and Portugal clash in the first of four quarterfinal matches.

chiellini

France maintains its status as the favorite to win it all, as the hosts benefit from Iceland’s monumental upset of England in the round of 16. France is priced as heavy 6/1 favorites (-600) to advance past the underdog Icelanders on Sunday and into the semifinals. Bettors can also back the French at more attractive odds of -250 to win in regulation. Iceland is +450 to advance and +850 to finish off France in 90 minutes.

The winner of France-Iceland gets the victor of the best match of the quarterfinals, Germany vs. Italy on Saturday. Italy earned its way into the round of eight via an impressive 2-0 win over two-time defending champion Spain, who has been the Italians’ nemesis, knocking the Azzurri out of the two previous Euro tournaments. Italy still has not gained the respect of the betting market, priced as the +160 underdogs to advance past the Germans. The 3/1 odds on Italy taking care of business without needing extra time is quite attractive from our perspective. Something about this Italian side – it’s starless, which may be working in its favor as the team game is emphasized, and more importantly, its defense may be the best in the tournament.

We’ll also put a few dollars on the gritty Poles against the still-overrated Portuguese. We lost when we took a crack against Cristiano Ronaldo and Co. with Croatia in the round of 16, but we’ll fire again on this fade play. Poland at +300 odds is a wager worth making.

Friday’s game pits Belgium against Wales. The Welsh side has been a nice story so far in this tournament, and with Gareth Bale on the pitch, a goal can come at any time. The Belgians, though, are rolling and are looking like a championship threat. Their opening clunker against the Italians long forgotten, they have outscored their last three opponents 8-0. The -140 we’ll have to lay on Belgium to win in regulation looks cheap enough to us, and we’ll also play ‘over’ 2 goals at -135.

Euro 2016 updated futures odds

 

Opening odds Current odds
FRANCE 7/2 11/4
GERMANY 3/1 3/1
BELGIUM 8/1 4/1
ITALY 15/1 6/1
PORTUGAL 20/1 6/1
POLAND 50/1 15/1
WALES 50/1 25/1
ICELAND 60/1 40/1